Holdout Lift of a Combined Early Spend Screen for Newly Introduced Meta Ads
On holdout Meta accounts from clients sampled of various industries (2046 weekly new ads; ~30% holdout), a train-chosen rule—early share ≥ half the duplicate baseline and CPA ≤1.25× the ad set when available—lifts later spend retention 1.85× (95% CI 1.28–2.76) but spends-and-performs only 1.14× (CI 0.83–1.48), short of a 1.5× CPA claim.
BibTeX
@techreport{darwiniq2026creativecontainerscreen,
title = {Holdout Lift of a Combined Early Spend Screen for Newly Introduced Meta Ads},
author = {{Darwin IQ Labs}},
year = {2026},
institution = {Darwin IQ Research},
number = {119},
url = {https://darwiniq.com/research/studies/2026-creative-container-screen}
}