This field record asks when Meta delivery prices (CPM) begin to climb ahead of Black Friday, how large the peak is, whether prices ease afterward and through Cyber Monday, and whether link CTR and CPC move with the auction. The short name used in the repository directory is the November auction prices study.

Across 41 Meta accounts from clients sampled of various industries, daily account-level metrics for November–early December in 2023–2025 show spend-weighted CPM typically crossing +10% above the early-November (Nov 1–7) baseline about 8–20 days before Black Friday (median 17 days). Black Friday CPM lands about +140% to +179% vs that baseline (median +171%). The day after Black Friday, CPM falls about 11–21% from the BF peak but remains well above baseline. Cyber Monday CPM is still roughly +67% to +101% vs early November, then the following five days ease further (still often +0% to +58% vs baseline). On Black Friday, link CTR is higher vs early November (median +47%), and CPC is also higher (median +68%)—so clicks are not cheaper; auction heat lifts both engagement rate and cost per click.

Sample

The asset set is dataset EMR-2026-09C: account-level daily insights from Nov 1 through Dec 7 for the same random sample of advertiser accounts used in the earlier Labs studies (accounts that each spent at least $100,000 in June 2026). Clients sampled of various industries. Years with usable delivery history in this pull: 2023, 2024, and 2025 (41 accounts per year). 2022 returned no account days for this sample via the Marketing API and is omitted from contrasts.

Method

For each year, CPM = spend ÷ impressions × 1,000; link CTR = inline link clicks ÷ impressions; CPC = spend ÷ clicks. The early-November baseline is the pooled Nov 1–7 spend-weighted level. “Rise start” is the first calendar day from Nov 8 onward whose spend-weighted CPM is at least 10% above that baseline. Black Friday and Cyber Monday follow the U.S. Thanksgiving calendar (Cyber Monday may fall in early December). Metrics are pooled across accounts each day (spend-weighted for CPM/CPC; impression-weighted for CTR).

Findings

When prices rise. In 2023 the +10% CPM threshold hit Nov 16 (8 days before BF). In 2024 it hit Nov 12 (17 days before). In 2025 it hit Nov 8 (20 days before). The median lead time is 17 days—around 10 November 2026 if the same pattern holds (Black Friday 2026 = 27 November; Cyber Monday = 30 November).

Prices start climbing about two and a half weeks before Black Friday

Lead time from the first day CPM ran 10% above its Nov. 1–7 level to Black Friday

Prices first 10% above early-Nov. levelBlack FridayNov. 1Nov. 8Nov. 15Nov. 22Nov. 29Dec. 620238 days202417 days202520 days2026projected~17 daysNov. 10

Note: 2026 is a projection from the historical median lead time, not an observation.

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09C · Spend-weighted daily Meta CPM, Nov. 1–Dec. 7, 2023–2025 · Clients sampled of various industries

Black Friday impact. Peak CPM aligned with Black Friday in each usable year. Indexed to early November = 100, BF CPM landed at roughly 271 (2023), 279 (2024), and 240 (2025). That is roughly a 2.4×–2.8× delivery-price day vs the first week of November.

After Black Friday. The next day, CPM dropped 11–21% from the BF print but did not return to baseline. Cyber Monday remained elevated vs early November (index roughly 167–201) while sitting below the BF peak. The five days after Cyber Monday eased further; in 2023 they nearly matched early-November CPM, while in 2024–2025 they stayed somewhat elevated.

Black Friday is the peak, and prices don't reset after it

Spend-weighted daily CPM, indexed to each year's Nov. 1–7 average = 100, aligned on Black Friday

50100150200250300 index3 weeks before2 weeks1 weekBlack Friday1 week afterBlack Friday to Cyber Monday202320242025Black Friday: 2.4× to 2.8×early-November prices

Note: Cyber Monday ran 67% to 101% above early November; the day after Black Friday was 11% to 21% below the Black Friday peak.

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09C · Meta, Nov. 1–Dec. 7 each year · Clients sampled of various industries

CTR and CPC. Black Friday link CTR was higher than early November in every usable year (about +34% to +65%). Black Friday CPC was also higher (about +64% to +102%). Seasonal auction heat does not appear as “cheaper clicks”; CTR rises with demand, but CPC still worsens with CPM.

Shoppers click more on Black Friday, but each click still costs more

Black Friday vs. Nov. 1–7 average, percent change

Link click-through rate0%+40%+80%+120%+34%2023+65%2024+47%2025Cost per click0%+40%+80%+120%+102%2023+68%2024+64%2025

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09C · Impression-weighted CTR; spend-weighted CPC

What this record does not claim

  • No account list, brand identifiers, or advertiser-level series are released with EMR-2026-09C.
  • 2026 outcomes are not observed here; the 10 November rise window is a historical median lead-time projection only.
  • The contrast is observational across live Meta accounts. It does not isolate category mix, Advantage+ settings, or whether heavier BF spenders outperform lighter ones (those splits are reserved for follow-up work on the local research extract).