This field record is a companion to the November auction prices study. It asks whether advertisers who do not lean into holiday spend still absorb higher Meta CPMs when the broader auction heats up—or whether CPM pressure is mostly paid by Holiday Participants who push sales.

Across 41 Meta accounts (2023–2025) from clients sampled of various industries, Non–Holiday Participants—accounts whose mean daily spend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday was not at least 10% above their Nov 1–7 run rate—still saw spend-weighted Black Friday CPM +48.6% vs early November (+41.5% across the full TG→CM window). Holiday Participants (25 accounts) saw larger pooled lifts (+184.7% on Black Friday; +127.9% TG→CM). Sitting out the holiday push does not avoid auction-price inflation; it only reduces how extreme the pooled CPM spike is relative to aggressive spenders.

Sample

The asset set is dataset EMR-2026-09D, derived from the same daily account extract as EMR-2026-09C. Years: 2023–2025. Classification uses 41 accounts with enough baseline and holiday-window days (25 Holiday Participants; 16 Non–Holiday Participants). Clients sampled of various industries.

Method

A Holiday Participant has mean daily spend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday at least 10% higher than mean daily spend Nov 1–7. Everyone else is a Non–Holiday Participant (flat or reduced holiday spend). Outcomes are spend-weighted CPM (and CTR/CPC) in early November, on Black Friday, and across the TG→CM window, contrasted as percent lifts vs each group’s own early-November baseline. Primary figures pool impressions/spend within group across years; unweighted account medians are reported for robustness.

Findings

Non-participants are still hit. Pooled Black Friday CPM for Non–Holiday Participants is +48.6% vs early November; the TG→CM window is +41.5%. Unweighted across accounts, the median BF CPM lift is +62.0% and the median holiday-window lift is +45.9%. Advertisers who are not “pushing sales” still buy impressions in a more expensive auction.

Sitting out Black Friday doesn't shield you from its prices

Spend-weighted daily CPM by group, indexed to the group's Nov. 1–7 average = 100, 2023–2025 pooled

50100150200250300 index3 weeks before2 weeks1 weekBlack Friday1 week afterHoliday ParticipantsNon–Holiday ParticipantsThanksgiving to Cyber Monday+49%+185%

Note: Holiday Participants raised mean daily spend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday at least 10% above their Nov. 1–7 run rate. Days are aligned on each year's Black Friday.

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09D · Meta · 25 participant and 16 non-participant accounts · Clients sampled of various industries

Participants pay a steeper pooled premium. Holiday Participants show +184.7% BF CPM and +127.9% TG→CM CPM on a spend-weighted basis—consistent with ramping budget into the hottest days. Unweighted medians are closer between groups (participants BF median +74.6% vs non +62.0%), so the equal-account view still shows clear CPM inflation for non-participants, while pooled totals amplify the participant spike.

Every account that held back still paid more on Black Friday

Each dot is one account's holiday season: change in spend vs. change in Black Friday CPM

0%+50%+100%+150%+200%+250% Black Friday CPM vs. early Nov.−50%No change+100%+300%+600%Holiday spend vs. early-November run rate (log scale)Non–Holiday Participantsheld or cut spendHoliday Participantsraised spend 10% or moreAll 16 sat above zero:the smallest Black FridayCPM rise was +17.5%

Note: Account-level medians are closer than pooled figures: +62% for non-participants vs. +75% for participants.

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09D · Meta, 2023–2025 · Clients sampled of various industries

CTR / CPC. Non-participants’ pooled BF CTR also rises (+43.1%) while BF CPC barely moves (+3.9%). Participants see both higher CTR (+44.2%) and much higher CPC (+97.5%) on Black Friday. The non-participant pain shows up mainly as fewer impressions per dollar (CPM), not as a large CPC spike in the pooled contrast.

Both groups got the same click lift; only participants saw click costs soar

Black Friday vs. Nov. 1–7, pooled percent change by group, 2023–2025

Non–Holiday ParticipantsHoliday Participants0%+50%+100%+150%+200%CPM+48.6%+184.7%Link click-through rate+43.1%+44.2%Cost per click+3.9%+97.5%

Source: Darwin IQ Labs, dataset EMR-2026-09D · Spend-weighted CPM and CPC; impression-weighted CTR

What this record does not claim

  • No account list or brand identifiers are released with EMR-2026-09D.
  • “Participation” is a spend-intensity proxy, not a declared retail promo calendar.
  • The contrast is observational. It does not estimate the ROI of leaning in vs sitting out, and does not control for category, objective, or creative mix.